Floyd Upperman's Blog

May 4, 2010

Equities

Filed under: Uncategorized — floydupperman @ 3:36 pm
In equities, it appears this may be one of those years where its best to “sell in May and go away”.  We have negative RSI divergence along with weekly reverse plungers in the stock indices.
I remain bearish copper as prices slide through the 50dma with little resistance.Gold is the real bugger here., I am surprised gold prices are as high as they are right now.   I believe this market could sell-off sharply anytime.
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April 23, 2010

JY End of Week Report

Filed under: Uncategorized — floydupperman @ 8:46 pm

JY-If you got short following Monday’s report (entering short between 10780 – 10800 for example), the current price of 10621 represents a profit of $2237.50 per contract (on remaining 50%). That’s if short from 10800. If short from 10780 for example, the remaining 50% profit would be $1987.50 per contract (on shorts from 10780 based on the last price of 10621).

Keeping in mind that this is a swing trade, not an official position trade, and the fact we do have a decent profit (via the RP) i have been suggesting the use of a trailing profitable stop in here (around 10760). Now we can look to lower that down to 10720 intra-day for today. I doubt it gets hit, we’d have to have a FP form, and if that were to form I would want out anyway.

Aside from that I’d stay short the remaining 50% coming into Monday and we’ll see what happens Monday. I would continue into Monday with a profitable stop of 10720 initially and if that is hit intra-day, then I’d go ahead and take the profit and move to the side.

This RP did a good job highlighting a turning point (via a short-term swing high).

Have a good weekend.

April 8, 2010

COT Data Workshop

Filed under: Uncategorized — floydupperman @ 5:14 pm

Floyd Upperman will be holding a workshop on the new Disaggregated COT report in Chicago later this month.

He will be going over the report and providing more insight into the data, its significance, as well as how it can be used to anticipate changes in price behavior. Floyd will also cover his innovative COT trading techniques & strategies.

For more information and dates please contact Kim at, Kim@upperman.com.

March 31, 2010

First look at PPR- Slightly bearish soybeans, possibly bullish wheat corn and cotton.

Filed under: Uncategorized — floydupperman @ 2:22 pm

Corn growers intend to plant 85.0 million acres of corn for all purposes in 2009, down 1 percent from last year as lower corn prices and unstable input costs are discouraging some growers from planting corn. If realized, this will be the second consecutive year-over-year decrease since 2007 but will still be the third largest acreage since 1949, behind 2007 and 2008. Expected acreage is down from last year in many States, however, producers in the 10 major corn-producing States (Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, Ohio, South Dakota, and Wisconsin) collectively intend to plant 66.3 million acres, up slightly from the 66.1 million acres planted last year.

Soybean producers intend to plant 76.0 million acres in 2009, up slightly from last year. If realized, the U.S. planted area would be the largest on record.

Acreage increases of 100,000 acres or more are expected in Arkansas, Iowa, Kansas, Mississippi, Nebraska, North Carolina, North Dakota, and Ohio. The largest decreases are expected in Missouri and South Dakota, both 150,000 acres less than 2008. If realized, the planted acreage in Kansas and New York will be the largest on record, and the planted acreage in North Dakota will tie the previous record high.

All wheat planted area is estimated at 58.6 million acres, down 7 percent from 2008. The 2009 winter wheat planted area, at 42.9 million acres, is 7 percent below last year but up 2 percent from the previous estimate. Of this total, about 30.9 million acres are Hard Red Winter, 8.38 million acres are Soft Red Winter, and 3.65 million acres are White Winter. Area planted to other spring wheat for 2009 is expected to total 13.3 million acres, down 6 percent from 2008. Of this total, about 12.7 million acres are Hard Red Spring wheat. The expected Durum planted area for 2009 is 2.45 million acres, down 10 percent from the previous year.

All cotton plantings for 2009 are expected to total 8.81 million acres, 7 percent below last year and the lowest since 1983. Upland area is expected to total 8.67 million acres, down 7 percent from last year. Growers intend to decrease planted area in all States except Georgia, Kansas, South Carolina, Tennessee and Virginia. The largest percentage declines are in Arkansas, California, Louisiana and Mississippi. Record low upland acreage is expected in Louisiana and Mississippi. American-Pima cotton growers intend to plant 143,500 acres, down 18 percent from 2008. California producers intend to plant 120,000 acres, down 23 percent from last year.

March 30, 2010

Evening Report

Filed under: Uncategorized — floydupperman @ 11:59 pm

Feeders keep going up, you really got to like this one. I remain bullish and will stay with the remaining 50% until we get two consecutive closes under our 18dma, and where the 2nd close is lower than the first. That’s what we’ve got to get to stop the remaining (the final) 50% out. So stay with it until the end! It seems they always go further than we expect and still surprise me too!

March 17, 2010

21st Centuary of Traders Data: The ‘Disaggregated COT report’ by Floyd Upperman

Filed under: Uncategorized — floydupperman @ 10:05 pm

Read my new article on COT Data published in TradersQ Magazine at http://www.tradersq.com/upperman1.htm. If you like what you read, be sure to see more at my website http://www.upperman.com.

March 10, 2010

Insight into recent market trends

Filed under: Uncategorized — floydupperman @ 4:56 pm

Gold is reversing today’s loss quite sharply. I didn’t expect this, but anything can still happen here. I’ll be watching the trade throughout the remainder of the afternoon closely. A close well off the high could result in the market rolling right back over as well. Also let me point out that at this point, there is virtually no chance to form a daily FP. This is because the low did not meet/exceed the 10-day low. A weekly FP is possible (though I believe unlikely). Yet if a weekly FP were to form, I would re-evaluate my stop on the shorts. Remember, we can always tighten our initial stop to reduce our risk (to allow for a lower potential loss). This is perfectly acceptable. What is never acceptable or allowable (based on our rules) is extending the stop to allow for a greater potential loss (than what was originally established @entry). Notice my concern at this time. I am not concerned about getting stopped out. That’s why we have stops. We must never make the mistake of extending stops to avoid possible loss. That’s one of the worst things a trader can do. My focus is on controlling and/or reducing risk of loss. At this point (following the rally we’ve had off the low today) I’d view a higher close today as a potential change in the market. Why? First I really didn’t expect it. Second, notice the action at our key moving averages (18dma and 50dma). Notice the current 50dma is 1109.75. Today’s low is roughly 1108. The current 18dma is 1117.85 and last is 1123.60. The action is as follows: We fell through the 18dma today, then down to the 50dma. The market found apparent support (buyers) at/near the 50dma. The buyers took control at the 50dma and rallied price back up through the 18dma. That’s a notable achievement (if it holds and we close on our charts at or near the high of the day). The 50dma is the battle line (as I often say, the battle for control of trend occurs around the 50dma). Coming into today we knew the market was approaching these areas. However, recent action led me to believe the market would slip under these key price levels (like a sinking ship disappearing under the waves). So far however, this is not the case. This ship has suddenly popped back above the waves and is barely sinking at the moment, last down only $1.30). This all said, the day is not over yet either. The close again will be key here in my opinion. Thus for now my stop will remain 1146. But…. I may lower it later today, tonight or tomorrow.

March 4, 2010

Self Directed Investor

Filed under: Uncategorized — floydupperman @ 6:30 pm

Check out my interview on Self Directed Investor here www.selfdirectedinvestor.com.

February 24, 2010

Upcoming Interview

Filed under: Uncategorized — floydupperman @ 12:55 am

I will be interviewed on Self Directed Trader on March 3, 2010 on a variety of trading issues and my COT Data Analysis for 2010.  Please be sure to check out my website, http://www.upperman.com to see the report and more of my evening reports.

February 13, 2010

Part 2 of 3 Must See Evening Report

Filed under: Uncategorized — floydupperman @ 1:11 am
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